With a daily profit of over 32 million, and the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail is such a bull, why not buy in the market?
On April 15, the Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Rail (code: 601816) disclosed the 2019 annual report. The annual report shows that the company achieved revenue of 329 in 2019.4.2 billion, an annual increase of 5.72%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies.4 ten percent, an increase of 16.48%.From the perspective of income growth, the growth of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail has shown a trend.In 2017 and before, the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway’s revenue growth rate has remained above 10% for many years.In 2018, the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail revenue growth rate replaced 5 for the first time.42%, corresponding to a total revenue of 311.600 million yuan.As a high-speed rail line connecting the two most developed metropolitan areas in the country, the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail will inevitably have the highest quality piece of assets.At the same time, it also means that it is difficult for the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail to increase profit margins through mergers and acquisitions.In 2017, the passenger load factor reached 80%, which also shows that the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail has entered the ceiling of the industry. How to improve the net profit due to insufficient growth space in the later period may become the main problem faced by listed companies.Despite the impressive performance, the continuation of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail slowed down after experiencing the initial rise in listing.Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail closed at 6 on April 16.25 yuan / share, which is nearly 8% lower than the closing price on the first day.With a daily income of 32.71 million yuan, the high-speed rail one brother’s annual report on getting rich shows that there are two sources of income for Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail-passenger transport business and road network services.The so-called passenger transportation business refers to the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway providing high-speed rail transportation services for passengers taking their own trains, accompanied by ticket prices.Road network services are: when trains undertaken by other railway transportation companies are running on the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway, they provide services such as line use, contact network use, and corresponding costs.In layman’s terms, it can be understood as a profit from using your company’s train, and one is to collect the “tolls” of other trains.In 2019, the passenger transportation business of Beijing-Shanghai High-speed Railway has shrunk, and this part of the operating income is 156.500 million yuan, reduced by 0 every year.92%; road network service revenue increased by 170.200 million, an annual increase of 12.69%.The shrinking revenue from this business stems from the company’s own fewer train trips.According to the annual report data, in 2019, a total of 18 trains will run on the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway line.730,000 columns, an increase of 1 over the previous year.480,000 columns, an increase of 8.58%, the company acts as train 3.600,000 columns, a decrease of 0 from the previous year.320,000 columns, a decrease of 8.14%.However, benefiting from the rapid increase in “tolls” income, the total income of Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Rail increased by 5 compared with the previous year.72%.Last year, its “road network service” revenue reached 170.200 million, an annual increase of 12.69%.Overall, the growth rate of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail net profit exceeded the growth rate of revenue during the year, mainly due to its cost control.In 2019, listed companies will achieve a total operating cost of 171.300 million, a decrease of 4 from the previous year.3.4 billion, down 2.47%.The corresponding gross margin is 50.70%, an increase of 3 from the previous year.46 averages.Specifically, the total cost reduction mainly includes two parts-the reduction of operating costs and financial expenses.The operating cost of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail will decrease by 1 in 2019.2%.The other part is a significant reduction in financial expenses, a 45% decrease from the previous year.In 2019, the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail interest expense will be 12 from 2018.600 million reduced to 10.9 trillion, ^ income from 0.900 million increased to 4.600 million yuan.In 2019, the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway realized net profit attributable to 119.4 ppm, with an average daily net profit of 3271 million, it can be said that the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail guarded the cash cows.Big dividends in a row, Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail is not bad money?At the same time, the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail also showed generosity.In the annual report, the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway disclosed the dividend plan for 2019: it plans to use the company’s total issued share capital of 491.100 million shares are used as a base, and dividends are distributed to registered A-share shareholders, with a cash deposit of 0 for every 10 shares.528 yuan (including tax), a total of 25 dividends.900 million, accounting for 21% of net profit.72%.Before the listing, the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail has already paid dividends.From July 1, 2019 to September 25, 2019, the Beijing-Shanghai High-speed Railway will distribute a dividend of 33.800 million yuan.In other words, the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail will gradually pay dividends in 2019.700 million, accounting for 50% of the company’s net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2019.In the past few years, the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail has also paid dividends.In 2017 and 2018, Beijing and Shanghai high-speed rail cash dividends accounted for 71% of the company’s net profit for the year.32% and 99.92%.Why is the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail such a large proportion of dividends, is the company not bad?This question was raised by market participants long before the listing.The Beijing-Shanghai High-speed Railway stated in the prospectus that the funds raised after the listing of the Beijing-Shanghai High-speed Railway used 65% of the equity of the company that is being acquired, Jingfu Railway Passenger Dedicated Line Anhui Co., Ltd. (abbreviation: “Jingfu Anhui Company”).The Beijing-Shanghai High-speed Railway plans to gradually form a high-speed railway network with the Beijing-Shanghai Channel as the skeleton and the regional connection lines connecting.The announcement shows that on January 21, 2020, this part of equity in Jingfu Anhui Company has been transferred to the name of Beijing-Shanghai High-speed Railway, and the registration of industrial and commercial changes has been completed.But as of now, the relevant transaction price has not been fully paid.As of March 20, the company paid 306 to Shanghai Bureau Group for the transaction.500 million US dollars, roughly equivalent to the funds raised by the IPO.Subsequently, the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail replaced the remaining price of 221.200 million yuan.At present, the acquisition may put pressure on Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail funds and affect the company’s performance to a certain extent.The prospectus shows that the two major lines currently operated by Jingfu Anhui-Hebong Passenger Dedicated and Hefu Railway Anhui Section-are still in short operation and are still in the market cultivation period.In 2018, it averaged 1.2 billion, and in the first three quarters of 2019 it averaged 8.8 billion.With the consolidated performance after the completion of the transfer, the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail 2020 profit index will be dragged down.How to pay off the remaining 22.1 billion US dollars is also a problem. The funds raised by the Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Rail IPO have been used up.According to the comprehensive gross profit margin of the company’s long-term liabilities announced in the prospectus4.5% calculated, 221.If all of the 200 million US dollars exceeds the borrowing, the annual interest expense will be nearly 1 billion US dollars.The annual report also pointed out that the difference between the investment scale of the company ‘s acquisition of part of the equity of Jingfu Anhui Company and the funds raised was resolved by reference. The scale of the company ‘s debt financing will expand.Net profit level may be affected to some extent.Will it be the second “PetroChina”?From the annual report, the growth rate of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail may have peaked.In 2018 and 2019, the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway’s revenue growth rate was about 6% for two consecutive years, which is more obvious than the rocket’s growth rate of more than 10%.The first is to meet the industry ceiling.According to public information, Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail market share has reached more than 70%.According to the prospectus, since the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail passenger load factor climbed to the 80% mark for the first time in 2017, its passenger load factor has stabilized at around 80%.In the first three quarters of 2019, the number of passengers on the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail was reset 79.9%.For this reason, the market is worried that if the price is not raised, the growth of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail income will gradually reduce the growth of labor costs, and the shareholder’s income will gradually decline.Others worry that the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail will become another CNPC.As another state-owned Big Mac listed company, CNPC’s market value has been declining all the way since its listing, from a maximum of 8.89 trillion fell all the way to around 1 trillion, holding countless investors, “Why is it so troublesome to ask Jun, just like PetroChina.”This paragraph has also become a footnote for the tragic moment of the stockholders.Before the listing in 2006, CNPC’s net profit was as high as more than 150 billion US dollars, but its performance continued to decline after listing, and the net profit fell to a minimum of 7.9 billion in 2016.Excessive hype at the beginning of the listing, and the continued shrinking performance hit investor confidence.In contrast, after experiencing growth at the initial stage of listing, the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail gradually slowed down and gradually stabilized.Wind data shows that the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail listed on the first day closed leading 6.77 yuan / share; closing income on April 16 was 6.25 yuan / share, down nearly 8% from the first day.Among the risks that may be faced, the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail mentioned the risks of macroeconomic fluctuations and competition risks of other modes of transportation in its annual report.The company said that macroeconomic fluctuations may affect business activities and passenger travel needs, while passenger transportation on slender railroad railways has an impact.The Beijing-Shanghai High-speed Railway connects the “Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei” and “Yangtze River Delta” economic zones, and has a high level of economic and social development. It is the region with the most active economic development and the greatest potential.Traffic corridors, but if the overall macroeconomic fluctuations occur, it may adversely affect the company’s performance.In addition, if the future highway network continues to expand and improve, and the punctuality rate and service level of air passenger transportation will continue to increase, it may still affect passenger travel choices. If there is a situation that significantly affects passenger turnover, it will have a certain impact on the company’s business operations.Reporter Peng Shuo Li Yunqi Editor Sun Yong Li Weijia Proofreading Liu Baoqing