Po Laiya (603605): Q3 revenue scale accelerated expansion in line with expectations maintain recommendation

1.

Event summary In the first three quarters of 2019, the company achieved operating income of 20.

80 ppm, an increase of 33 in ten years.

35%; realize net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies.

400,000 yuan, an increase of 32 in ten years.

04%; realized net deduction of non-net profit2.

380,000 yuan, an increase of 41 over the same period last year.

50%.

Net operating cash flow

73 trillion, down 61 from the same period last year.

02%.

2.

Our Analysis and Judgment (I) The expansion of the third quarter’s revenue scale accelerated, driving performance improvement and increasing the company’s main business revenue in the first three quarters of 201920.

80 ppm, an increase of 5 over the same period last year.

20 trillion, growing up to 33.

35%.

By quarter, the company’s Q1 / Q2 / Q3 achieved revenue of 6 respectively.

42/6.

86/7.

52 trillion, corresponding to a revenue increase of 1.

39/1.

47/2.

3.4 billion, 27 year-on-year.

59% / 27.

39% / 45.

15%, the scale of revenue increased quarter by quarter, and the incremental part improved month-on-month, and the improvement effect was obvious; of which, the single quarter in the third quarter contributed year-to-date.

17% of revenue and 44.

The 98% increase in revenue broke through the company’s relatively weak performance in the third quarter of the past two years (sale season). The third quarter of 2017/2018/2019 changed by -0 from the second quarter of the same year.

01 / -0.

20 / + 0.

6.6 billion.

In terms of product categories, skin care / cleansing / beauty products achieved operating income of 3 in the third quarter.

73/0.

42/0.

370,000 yuan, a change from the same period last year2.

17 / -0.

12/0.

280,000 yuan, corresponding to YOY47.63% /-22.

65% / 333.

91%.

Compared with the second quarter of this year, the three main products also showed significant improvement, each increasing by 0.

45/0.

06/0.

1.6 billion.

Among them, skin care products contributed 89 this quarter.

51% of operating income (up 1.
.

57 single), while contributing 92% of the main business income increase.

98%, keeping the absolute leading mass scale.

In the third quarter of 2019, the average sales prices of the three main products, skin care / cleansing / beauty, respectively changed by -13 from the same period last year.

82% /-1.

28% / 12.

93%, of which the average price of skin care products decreased significantly, the range of change decreased by 14 compared with the third quarter of 2018.

32 singles; the average breakdown ratio of cleansing products narrowed3.

For 40 grades, the average price growth of beauty products continued to improve, a significant increase of 9 on the basis of last year.

17 units.

It can be seen that the scale expansion of beauty products has enjoyed dividends of both volume and price, while skin care and cleansing products have mainly driven sales growth through increased sales.

The company achieved net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in the first three quarters.

400,000 yuan, an increase of 0 over the same period last year.

580,000 yuan; realized net deduction of non-net profit 2.

380,000 yuan, an increase of 0 over the same period last year.

7 billion.

The increase in net profit and non-net profit was mainly due to the company’s sales growth.

The company’s net cash flow from operating activities in the first three quarters was zero.

73 trillion, a decrease of 1 over the same period last year.

US $ 1.4 billion, which can be used to obtain cash inflows from the sales of goods and the provision of labor services. (19.

43%) is less than the growth rate of revenue expansion, an increase of 3 over the same period last year.

45 ppm to 21.

19 trillion; At the same time, cash may be used to purchase goods, and cash paid for labor services is increased by 2.

10 billion, taxes and fees increased by 0.

8.8 billion yuan.

(2) Comprehensive gross profit margin rose by 0.

71pct, the cost rate increased by 0 during the period.

19pct’s consolidated gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2019 was 63.

85%, an increase of 0 compared with the same period last year.

71 units.

The first three quarters of operating costs increased by 30 per year.
79%; in the third quarter of this year, operating costs increased significantly by 64.
36%, an increase far exceeding the corresponding revenue growth rate, increasing operating costs dragged the company’s gradual gross profit margin higher than the first half of the report.

93 units.

The company produces humectants in raw materials (15.

69%), actives (55.

14%), grease wax (321.

82%) and emulsifier (29.

47%) The unit price has increased on average to a different extent compared to the same period last year. Among them, the company’s products are upgraded and selected to purchase more active actives. The shortage of supply in the silicone market has pushed up the price of related materials in waxes and other factors.Up.

Only the packaging (-26.

15%) Unit price appears temporarily for ten years.

The company’s comprehensive expenses during the period are 48.

05%, about 0 in the same period last year.

19 shares per share, sales / management (excluding R & D) / finance / R & D expense ratios are 39.

43% / 6.

84% /-0.

49% / 2.

28%, a change of 0 from the same period last year.

58/0.

31 / -0.

71/0.

01 averages.

In the first half of 2019, the company incurred sales expenses5.

230,000 yuan, an increase of 33 compared with the same period last year.

49%. The increase in sales expenses and sales rate was mainly due to the increase in online and offline advertising promotion in the first half of the year, and the increase in promotion and promotion expenses increased; management expenses (excluding R & D expenses) 1 were incurred.

420,000 yuan, an increase of 39 over the same period last year.

78% (an increase of 4046.

390,000 yuan), mainly due to equity incentive amortization; the company incurred research and development expenses of 0.

470,000 yuan, an increase of 33 in ten years.

81%, mainly due to increased R & D investment, active development of new products and technological transformation.

(3) Multi-channel, multi-brand, ecological and comprehensive development, effectively promoting revenue and net profit growth Through brand upgrades, new product listings and online and offline integration of interactive marketing have driven the company’s revenue to steadily grow.

Among the sales channels, e-commerce channels have grown rapidly; the company has in-depth cooperation with Tmall, JD.com and other consumer electronics platforms to continue to refine operations, strengthen crowd analysis, integrate media resources, and improve the content marketing system.

In addition, the company continues to develop a single-brand store operation model, build a healthy and beautiful smart store model, gradually build a brand matrix, and seize growth opportunities from multiple perspectives.

At the same time, the company’s sales of fist products are improving, which is conducive to the company’s brand awareness and market share.

Taking the Double Eleven presale data as an example, as of the evening of October 28, 2019, the company’s explosive product Black Sea Salt Bubble Mask (Double Eleven price 79.

90 yuan) in Tmall flagship store sales has exceeded 14.

800,000 pieces, which is expected to bring corresponding 1182 million (d) human resources to promote the company’s development. Supply chain management escorted production to the company. 合肥夜网 After the reorganization of the company, the post-90s talents were injected after the 90s, which injected young blood into the company and made the company younger., Diversification and internationalization.

At the same time, the company has designed a variety of incentive mechanisms for talents of different levels and grades, so that the initiative and enthusiasm of employees are enhanced, which provides a feasible guarantee for achieving performance growth.

In terms of production and supply, the company newly introduced equipment such as automatic glass bottle cleaning and drying lines, which improved the overall production efficiency.

Increasingly mature supply chain management in materials procurement, manufacturing and logistics distribution allows companies to quickly adapt to today’s rapidly changing markets.

杭州桑拿In addition, the company must also attach great importance to environmental protection, continue to uphold the concept of green and low-carbon environmental protection, strictly control the company’s environmental, safety, energy consumption, sewage treatment and other indicators, and all factories and office areas in the factory to achieve waste management.
3.
Investment suggestion We believe that the company’s scale has maintained continuous growth in traditional brands and traditional channels, and gradually vigorously promote the multi-brand, multi-category, multi-channel ecological development strategy, which is guided by consumer demand and gradually develops in accordance with channels.

Organizational platform provides protection for the company’s ecological growth, realizes maximum resource sharing, and improves production and operation efficiency; the brand is continuously upgraded and new products are listed, and popular products are sold to promote the brand image and promote the brand spirit; integration of magazines, variety shows and spokespersonMarketing expands brand awareness; economical scientific research and innovation capabilities achieve brand quality assurance; combined with the company’s scale expansion and continuous improvement in gross profit margin, we predict that the company will achieve revenue of 29/2019/2020 respectively.

99/37.

48/46.

110 thousand yuan, net profit 3.

74/4.

69/5.

79 trillion, corresponding to a PS of 5.

91/4.

73/3.

84 times, corresponding PE is 47/38/31 times, maintaining the “recommended level”.

4.

The risks indicate the risk of intensified competition in the cosmetics industry and the risk of incubation of new projects.